By Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

”The best way to avoid a disagreement is to have all stakeholders in the room”. Cheryl Yeoh

Who has the most to win or lose in the forthcoming elections? What do they do to manage risks and improve chances of success? Where are they vulnerable? What are their strengths and weaknesses? An election in a democratic system is a monumental event. 

In emerging democracies such as ours, where leadership and the quality of governance make major differences in lives of majority of the people, elections are important to a number of key stakeholders, many of them capable of affecting outcomes, and being affected variously by outcomes.In no order of importance, these are some of the key stakeholders.

Nigerians

This is quite possibly the most important election since 1999, principally because it will be held in the context of massive insecurity, an economy shrinking from poor management and deepening corruption in governments, serious questions over the capacity of politicians to lead the nation through trying assaults on foundations of its unity and future as one country, and widespread cynicism over the value of the democratic system. There is also widespread and genuine concern over the impact of conduct and language of leading contestants over perceptions and behaviour of followers, to a degree that there is near- certainty that violence will  feature prominently all the way from now until after the elections. 

A major worry is the dominance of concerns over the victory of  particular candidates, rather than an evident and popular awareness that this is an election over the best candidate to take over from President Buhari.

The foundations and resilience of the country will be severely tested by threats of violence around the elections. Nigerians will win if the country conducts an election that is not violently disputed, and transits to an era of major changes and reforms in governance and in quality of integration and levels of security for the citizen.

This win, however, is almost entirely dependent on the disposition of the outgoing administration towards improving the degree of election and national security and the level of restraint which contestants bring to bear on the competition. The nation will lose if the elections end up compounding its already precarious state.

INEC

The electoral commission has exercised restraint in the manner it reacts to threats and manifestation of violence around preparations and conduct of the elections, but informed Nigerians know that the commendable improvements it has made to the electoral process will be negated by restricted space for voters to exercise choices. The nation knows that the commission has no control over the security environment, and is aware that it will be difficult for the commission to deploy personnel and material to many areas where their safety is not guaranteed.

The way key stakeholders are reacting to their roles, everything, in fact the future of the country, will depend on the credibility of the elections. The emergence of a clear and lawful winner will not rule out violent resistance against the result, but it will isolate mischief and trouble makers, many of whom are already convinced that their candidates will only lose if they are rigged out. INEC needs Nigerians to have faith in its readiness and commitment to conduct credible elections, but faith in systems and processes in Nigeria have been rendered more scarce than fuel at affordable prices or the new Naira notes. 

Social media has become a major player in the fate of the elections, playing a largely negative role of peddling distorted fiction and manipulating passions. If INEC’s preparations are subverted, and its elections are used as triggers to compound the nation’s woes, saving the democratic system in Nigeria will be difficult. If a combination of the quality of its elections, a radical improvement in the election environment and a popular perception that it should be trusted work to push the country beyond nightmare scenarios, INEC will earn a place of honour  in the history of Nigeria. Of all  stakeholders, none is more dependent on the others than INEC.

Candidates

If candidates at all levels behave with an alarming sense of entitlement and scant respect for rules, it is largely because they have literally acquired their positions at unbelievable cost, and they are involved in a winner-takes-all political system. A loss may involve additional cost as the electoral process is placed at the mercy of the judiciary, which, warts and all, will have the final say in over 70% of candidates who will eventually be  declared winners by judges.

At this stage of contests, laws, decency and decorum have taken flight as muscles are flexed to squeeze areas of relative disadvantage. The entire contest has moved to the gutter and citizens are being targeted to be primed to think strictly along ethnic and religious lines. 

Huge amounts are still being spent on old-fashioned but wasteful rallies with rented crowds, majority of which had attended all rallies to make up numbers. Dirty tricks units are busy looking to exploit INEC’s weaknesses and seek unfair advantages from the opposition. Nigeria’s democracy punishes losers and also-rans with nothing for their efforts, which explains the dangerous levels of desperation we see.

President Buhari

President Buhari could remedy a dismal verdict of history for his eight years of leadership if he can provide an environment that improves the potential for the emergence of a successor on the basis of credible elections and a peaceful transition to the next administration. He can emulate the President he defeated in 2015 by making efforts to reduce the exposure of potential voters to the influence of armed, non-state actors and throwing the weight of the state against those who will seek to plunge the country into deeper crisis over the elections. He has the capacity to do this, but it is doubtful if he will do it. He has drawn very tight circles around what he will do between now and May this year, but, basically, he just wants to leave the Villa.

Between a virtual civil war over the CBN and management of key sectors of the economy in the small circle around him and crushing burdens of economic hardship which citizens are barely tolerating, a minimalist president like Buhari will fervently count the days, touching as little as possible, lest they interfere with his terminal leave.

The military

Some Nigerians look at the challenges that will trail the elections, scrutinize the candidates (one of whom will be president in a few months time), contemplate the consequences of a bitterly- disputed election and possibility of widespread violence, and whisper that a military government could be a stop-gap solution. The leadership of the military has repeatedly affirmed its loyalty to constitutionalism and its commitment to contribute to a credible election and a peaceful transition.

The military will set back the tortuous journey of Nigeria’s democracy, and will add nothing to the search for sustainable growth and development of the country if it is dragged into governance under any excuse or pretense.It is a major stakeholder in how the elections affect the country’s future, but it will be a major loser if it supports anything other than an orderly and peaceful election and transition to a new administration.

Who has the most to win or lose in the forthcoming elections?.