By Dele Sobowale

“The “Yes-man” is the enemy; your true friend will argue with you and fight with you” – Aleksander Solzhenitsyn, 1918- 2003

Every presidential and governorship candidate in Nigeria is surrounded by “Yes-men” – people who agree with everything he says or does and are ever ready to do battle with those who disagree. The candidate is already addressed as ‘President’, ‘Governor’ or ‘Senator’ during the primaries. I remember going to interview the late Alhaji Kekere-Ekun who was the chosen candidate to replace Military Governor Marwa (in Lagos) during Abacha’s phoney political transition to civil rule. I knew him from childhood; despite my harsh criticisms of Abacha, Egbon, as I called him, granted me the interview. Blood is always thicker than water. Sycophantic drama awaited me.

“My name is Dele Sobowale and I am from VANGUARD to see Alhaji Kekere-Ekun.” That statement almost brought down the roof. Hundred voices shouted: “Say Governor or go away.” Just at that instance Kekere-Ekun was coming out with a throng of worshippers. “What is going on?” He asked nobody in particular. Then he saw me; grabbed my arm and whisked me off to his office – with apologies for his people’s behaviour. “Why are they calling you Governor before election?”  He shrugged his shoulders. He was never a Governor of Lagos. An hour in his company revealed how the staff of candidates for office deceive them; flatter them and give them the impression that they can make no mistake. That, invariably, is the fatal error for most candidates. Tinubu’s decision to lead a Muslim-Muslim, Mu-Mu, ticket in 2023 is an example.

COMPLACENCY WAS THE PROBLEM

“We should be wary of complacency” – President S C Johnson Wax, 1990s

That gem of advice appeared in the house magazine of the multi-national company which, at one time, accounted for nearly 40 per cent of global air-freshner and insecticide sales. I was a Sales Consultant/Trainer for the Nigerian company; and later the Ghanaian and Kenyan affiliates. To protect its lead, JW had its staff working harder and smarter than its competitors. We never took anything for granted. And, everything was quantified, analysed and re-analysed.

Tinubu has always operated like a Chess Grandmaster. Every move now has a future implication. He did not approach Buhari in 2013 because he actually believed the man could manage the Federal Government, FG. He went for Buhari because that was the only way he could obtain a foothold into Aso Rock. Tinubu did not expect outstanding performance from Buhari. He also assumed that with his own party, the Action Congress, AC, having the largest numbers of Governors, the National Assembly members and he being the largest financier of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Buhari would have no choice but to give him greater say after the victory. But, first, he committed Buhari to a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Buhari agreed. Like every Grandmaster, who loses a contest to a lower ranked player, the failure of Buhari to deliver Tinubu as his running mate was the first disaster to hit Tinubu’s strategy for clinching the presidency.

The second, and equally serious, was what Buhari did once he was sworn-in as President. Contrary to Tinubu’s expectations, he was totally side-lined. Buhari had betrayed him; although it was not so clear at first. With the presidency in his grasp, Buhari no longer needed Tinubu. The table was turned – till today. Tinubu was forced to start the long process of building up support for his presidential bid from 2019 – especially in the North. He assumed the South-West, SW, was safe for him. To a great extent he was right about that; except for his obsession with Mu-Mu ticket. His clandestine campaigns in the North included one message. If supported by the northern Muslim elite to clinch the ticket, he would appoint one of them as his running mate. He kept his promise to the northern elite and immediately created problems for himself and his party.

Never mind his marriage to a Christian years ago, Tinubu’s innermost circle of advisers and associates had always been nearly all Muslims. As Lagos State Governor, his second in command was the Chief of Staff. The first was Lai Mohammed from Kwara State. It was/is probably the first time in Nigerian history that a non-indigene would be entrusted with the innermost secrets of a state. His contempt for his three Christian Deputy Governors was boundless. Fashola, another Muslim, followed Lai. Chief Bisi Akande, Alhaji Rauf Aregbesola, Muiz Banire and Alhaji Olusi were the bedroom cabinet. The Christians now running around as his campaign managers, then Commissioners, were second class officers; and they knew it. From 1999, the composition of Lagos State Public Service started changing from 50-50 per cent Muslims and Christians. Eight years of Tinubu government had shifted it to about 60-40. By the time we formed Christian Conscience to demand for Christian Governor, the situation had deteriorated to about 65-35. And, certainly, the inequity would have been worse if we did not take up the struggle to press for Christian Governor. Tinubu never considered any Christian good enough to be Governor. He was forced to nominate Ambode.

WHY COMPARISON WITH ABIOLA IS RIDICULOUS

The attempt to persuade Christians to accept the present Mu-Mu team just because the entire nation overwhelmingly voted for the Mu-Mu ticket of Abiola and Kingibe in 1993 constitutes another blunder committed in this campaign. Tinubu is not Abiola; and Shettima is not Kingibe. Furthermore, the circumstances which produced Abiola as the candidate of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and Tinubu as candidate of the APC are totally different. For a start, Abiola was not a professional politician until circumstances forced him into the 1993 race. In fact, if then military President Babangida had not annulled the previous party conventions which produced the late General Shehu Yar’Adua and Adamu Ciroma of the SDP and NRC respectively, Abiola would not have been a candidate. IBB not only annulled the results of the first conventions, he banned all the powerful politicians from contesting in the second one. Abiola, a philanthropist and the major financier of the Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs, was the best known individual the second time. Despite that, he had stiff opposition from Atiku and Kingibe. And it was Atiku who stepped down for him to become candidate.

Above all, the sources of Abiola’s fabulous wealth were well known. The military made him wealthy because he was their friend. His antecedents were as clear as crystal, we knew his parents and where he went to school; and he never wore his religion on his sleeves. Christians could trust him; because he demonstrated his liberal attitude in the businesses he established.

That notwithstanding, a precedent, if repeated too often, cements a principle. Christians voted overwhelmingly for Abiola and Kingibe and, in the process, demonstrated their willingness to decide on the merits of the candidates. It should not be assumed that every Mu-Mu team is automatically acceptable. For decades, political parties in Kaduna state had balanced their tickets – until El-Rufai introduced Mu-Mu ticket and turned the state into hell on Earth. You can bet any amount of money that El-Rufai will not stay in Kaduna after May 2023. It is for these reasons, among others, that the Christians for Equity and Justice in Nigeria, CEJN, reject the Mu-Mu team of Tinubu and Shettima. Perhaps another team in the future might be more acceptable; but, not this one.

APC WILL DISINTEGRATE IF TINUBU LOSES

“A political party deserves the approbation of [Nigerians] only as it represents the ideals, the aspirations and the hopes of [Nigerians]. If it is anything else, it is merely a conspiracy to seize power” – US President Eisenhower, 1890-1969.

APC started as a two-man conspiracy. As we come to the end of its eight years in office, in what way has the party represented the ideals, hopes and aspirations of Nigerians? Everything went from very bad under Jonathan, admittedly, to much worse under Buhari. Most Christian APC leaders have not joined the campaign. They now know that they were duped to work for a hidden agenda in 2013-5 – which was intended to exclude them from Aso Rock for years to come. Left to the planners it would be Buhari-Tinubu-Shettima ad infinitum.

STATEMENT OF ‘THE COMPATRIOTS’ ON THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS

1. The Compatriots have observed with concern preparations and timelines for the forthcoming national and state elections.

2. We re-iterate our earlier statement that these elections must hold at all cost and must be credible. All actual and perceived threats to the elections must therefore be handled promptly and decisively. Current difficulties facing citizens represent threats to the elections.

3. Rhetoric and statements which inflame passions should be avoided by all. In particular, comments that suggest that the democratic elections must end with their candidate’s victory should be condemned.