By Okoh Aihe

ON my birthday, my prayer for Nigeria is not a cashless crunch that sends nearly everybody to the very nadir of life, but a prayer that Nigerians feel the kind of verve and optimism that have enveloped me this day, and build the kind of hope and audacity that ridicule adversity. Apart from a pervasive befuddlement across the nation arising from the bungling of a very brilliant policy, two stories, which may be quite the experience of a number of people across the nation, occupy the very core of my thoughts this morning. Remember, it is my happy day, as I write, February 14, so, don’t share a tear. Instead, have a good laugh because laughter has a way of bringing healing and replacing pain with sweet sensations. Story one. I have a PoS (point of sale) or mobile money agent close to where I live. He would usually handle my little cash challenges and make life easier for an older person.

On this very day, sometime last week, I did not see him for nearly a full day until he came late in the evening to try to execute some transfers. According to his story, he awoke at 3.30 a.m., leaving his young wife at home to go to the bank and queue for cash.He was number 52 when he arrived at the ATM, implying that others had arrived hours before him.The machine dispensed cash to 30 people and stopped. He proceeded to another bank, where his number was 15. The machine served only three people and stopped. All day, the young man roamed from one bank to another, only to discover that luck can be a rarity in a season of government confusion. 

Story two. Another PoS agent not very far from where I live, will share in the grief and sorrow of those whom life has nearly forgotten, the very people whose resilience and amenability to the vagaries of life can prove useful lessons to curators of policies introduced on the wings of deus ex machina. Over a week ago, this young lady and her husband, whose business used to enjoy some level of boom, suddenly started to stock soft drinks and doughnuts. What is the meaning of this? I asked. Oh, a change in line of business while waiting for the situation to sort itself out. I don’t have to endanger the survival of my family,” she vowed. How would they pay? Oh, via transfers. This has become every man’s and woman’s story. Overnight, small businesses that form the cornerstone of any economy have vanished, and the voices of those ordinary folks are too weak to be accommodated by the designers of policies aimed at putting Nigeria ahead of the rest of the world in a cashless commitment to modernity.  There is a concourse of opinions that the cashless policy of the government, promoted by the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Godwin Emefiele, is not a bad one but was only hurriedly introduced. It would therefore make sense for people of good will to rally together to save it from a sudden death that may be very damaging to the nation. 

Even in the face of rising anger towards the policy, a couple of people have told me within the past few days that two primary problems exist on the path of faithful implementation of the policy. The first is the scarcity of new Naira notes, which only the CBN can solve through accommodation of variegated opinions to achieve results, while the second is external, the absence of a reliable communications backbone that can carry the plethora of services being introduced to the telecom networks. This remains a core problem, prompting a source to tell this writer that if the people in the city are witnessing acute difficulties occasioned by the new policy, those in the rural areas must be close to hell in their daily experiences.

Why would somebody be that despondent when summarizing happenings in parts of the countryside? Just wait. An industry source told this writer that the biggest obstacle to the implementation of the cashless policy is the telecoms sector, whose infrastructure is severely challenged at the moment. The networks were not prepared for what is happening now, and, as a result, they are stretched because of the volume of transactions. Services are slow and very frustrating because of the absence of capacity. However, there is a glimmer of hope as the telcos may have upgraded their capacity in some areas because they need a minimum 3G network to transmit the election results.  A source within the regulatory authority, the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC, corroborated that position when it said: “The transaction backbone is a complete mess. Your network is only as good as its weakest link. You can have very good capacity in your radio access network, but if your transmission is not good, it is a very big problem.”

It doesn’t matter whether it is 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, or any other G you may want to add in order to boost your sense of achievement, the homogeneous thread is the transmission backbone, which is presently very fickle. The fiber-optic links between base stations form the most reliable backbone, as opposed to microwave, which is very unreliable. Another reason that rural areas, as well as some underserved areas in cities and rural communities, will suffer more is that the majority of these areas are covered by 2G base stations, which are not designed for data transactions.

Another NCC source lamented the failure of the InfraCos to bring relief to far-flung areas of the country. The Infrastructure Companies, InfraCos, concept was designed by the NCC to enable some companies, licensed on a regional basis, to provide fibre optic points of presence in all 774 local government areas in the country. The market was divided into seven regions, with Lagos designated as a market all its own because of its vast business opportunities. There was some kind of counterpart fund for the companies, some kind of seed support specially set aside by the regulator.

The operators were to bridge service gaps across the regions of the country. The laudable idea was comparable to OpenReach in the UK, which is managed by Ofcom, that country’s telecom regulator. Former Executive Vice Chairman, EVC, Dr Eugene Juwah, of blessed memory, stated in January 2015 at the presentation of an InfraCo license to MainOne Cable: “When the seven InfraCos finally come on board, they are expected to take broadband infrastructure from the ocean and connect it to the cities and hinterland across the country to make Internet ubiquitous in Nigeria.”This will have a positive effect on the economy.”

The nation’s telecoms future was looking bright back then.There were security challenges in parts of the North. The situation festered even more because some of the states of the federation saw telecom operations as low-hanging fruits to mobilize easy revenue, and therefore would not give right-of-way, RoW, except at a premium price. IHS returned its license for North-Central after becoming dissatisfied with their greed.

“We were supposed to bring points of service, or PoS, to the 774 local government areas, or LGAs. “That has not taken off at all,” my source fumed. Years later, when the country created a cashless policy that should have been driven seamlessly by the telecoms sector, it has suddenly turned out that, apart from the failure of the government to be fastidious in the planning and execution of such policy, the industry has its own challenges, that would make us feel some more pain in the implementation of a simple policy.

Remember, I am writing this on my birthday, and therefore, no lamentations. What should we do? My source made three bold suggestions. One: The nation needs bold and purposeful leadership that can span the length and breadth of the country. Two: Instead of forcing telecom operators into the parallel market with all of its uncertainties, the Central Bank should establish a special Forex window to allow them to access funds for the timely roll-out of services.Three: The security forces should provide cover for operators as they try to roll out services or supply diesel to base stations. Meanwhile, something urgent should be done to remove people from the present distress and desperation they are experiencing.