By Rotimi Fasan

THE February 25 and March 18 elections are now a matter of history. They have come and gone but many people are still too emotionally wounded to take anything but a jaundiced view of the outcome of the elections and what the gains of the elections rather than the failures, which are in my view relatively minor, might portend for the future of this country. I quite understand the pain being felt by those whose emotional and, perhaps, financial investment in the elections goes beyond that of the ordinary voter (any average Nigerian voter who allows the outcome of the vote to interfere with their mental balance is either being foolish or have some stakes in the election than they are willing to admit). 

One can make sense of their disappointment and reluctance to accept at face value the inconvenient truth of their loss which they have decided to amplify in the light of the relative success of their opponents. Both the gains and the losses of these elections are only relative as they pertain to the ruling and opposition parties. Otherwise, nearly all the political parties that participated in these elections have recorded one gain or another. But to the extent that some have lost out in the presidential and, later, the gubernatorial elections, they cannot see anything to cheer about the elections. Again, the reason for this is all too well-known. It’s all a product of the winner takes it all attitude of the Nigerian politician and a political system that concentrates all the power and authority of a political office in none but the occupier of that office to the exclusion of other stakeholders. 

But in this cycle of election, no single party or individual can lay absolute claims to the gains of the elections nor can any of the parties claim it bears the entire loss of the exercise. What is obvious is that the parties, at least the front runners that were expected to make some impact, have recorded both positive and negative outcomes. This was unlike the case in the past where the gains and losses were respectively heavily weighted on the side of the ruling party and the opposition party. It speaks to the relative integrity of the outcome and, to some extent, the process of these elections that opposition parties could not only hope for a fair and credible challenge but, in fact, hold firmly to the idea that they actually defeated the ruling party in many instances. 

That is the situation the 2023 general elections have made bear but which certain irregularities in the conduct of the elections, especially the failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to comply fully with its self-imposed guideline as it relates to the real time transmission of the results of the elections. This is the major problem that most critics of the election have expressed. It has all but occluded everything else about the Presidential and National Assembly elections of February 25, including reports of violence, voter suppression and results falsification that became the trademark allegations and criticisms of the March 18 gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections. 

The earlier problem of widespread failure to transmit the results of the elections electronically has been largely addressed and eliminated in the elections of March 18, leaving Nigerians and INEC with a different set of issues. Without denying the truth of some of these criticisms, the fact still remain that a lot of the criticisms appear grossly exaggerated, no less because they seem to have resulted from an unhealthy concentration of attention in a few places and states such as Lagos and Rivers, while similar issues in other states and places are ignored. Which is not the same thing as saying that the issues of manual recording of results, voter intimidation and suppression, etc., are not to be treated seriously unless they are reported in other places. 

The point being made here is that the focus on Lagos seems both extreme and pathological and suggests something sinister, an attempt to drive a particular narrative that leads back to a preconceived answer. Which eventually seemed to be the case with the tiresome accusations and counter-accusations of ethnic baiting and reports of voter suppression between the Igbo and the Yoruba in Lagos. The wave of excitement that characterised the presidential election has all been deflated only to be replaced by a dangerous level of ethnic baiting in the two weeks that separated the first set of elections from the second. 

While it may be difficult to absolve or blame one side exclusively for the ethnic tension, it has only accentuated the exaggerated notion that both the presidential and gubernatorial elections and the other set of elections that went with them were the worst in the history of the country. This, I insist, is the false line of argument that is being pursued by the most emotionally bruised of the losers in the election. Anyone with any sense of history knew this would be the end result of the elections given the ethnic origins of the three leading candidates. It was always going to be a choice of identity and so it has turned out to be. 

The gains of these elections far outweigh the losses and until someone is able to prove that INEC actually gave the presidential election to the ruling party by a systematic process of subterfuge and the other identified infractions (which can’t be said to have substantially affected the outcomes) happened only in Lagos and a couple other places, it would be difficult for many Nigerians to accept that the elections were the worst. Rather, the elections hold aloft the promise of a bright electoral future for Nigerians, a future where their voice will count in the choice of their leaders and where technology, despite its obvious shortcomings this time around, can help ensure the integrity of our elections. 

The general pattern of gains and losses between the ruling party, opposition forces and the lesser known elements, makes clear that the Nigerian voter can no longer be taken for granted. The elected leaders and representatives of the people must henceforth earn their position as they would be held to account on the basis of their performance. But these obvious gains of the last elections, rather than being the foundations for future growth in our electoral practice, risk being eroded by the exaggerated shortcomings, serious as they are. The true import and significance of these elections will not be known until such a time as Nigerians have allowed themselves to keep a critical distance from the pain and euphoria of their respective loss and gain. Only then can the score card and history of the 2023 elections be fully written.